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Investments in Asia Could Exceed Merger & Acquisition in the West Because of Sanctions, Says Expert_我的网站

一 |     Ambuj Sonal, Associate Partner at Link Legal, a firm tracking mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and joint ventures, among others, spoke with Sputnik about cross-border investments in the era of growing uncertainty and the impact this will have on M&A activity in 2022 and beyond.,Sputnik: In the past two years, many restrictions have been imposed on foreign investments globally, mainly for reasons of national security. What effect have such regulatory changes had on cross-border mergers and acquisitions?,Ambuj: The primary reasons for implementing such additional scrutiny were to control the misuse of the uncertain situation and opportunistic investment behavior. Indeed, these restrictions affected cross-border deals globally in early 2020. For example, the European Commission Report on foreign investment flows [released in November 2021] suggested that foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to European countries declined by approximately 71 percent during the time of COVID.,Although these economies had amended regulations to protect their domestic companies from 'corporate raiders', this deterred foreign investors and caused a substantial decline in inbound M&A deals.,Having said that, the global cross-border M&A activity showed huge improvements in the second half of 2020, when most of the countries had started vaccination and adopted other measures to control the pandemic.,Reports show that from the second half of 2020, the volume of global deals increased by approximately 29 percent, and deal values soared by roughly 156 percent, indicating that cross-border M&A deals enjoyed a quicker recovery from COVID.,Sputnik: India has also amended foreign investment rules, explicitly targeting countries with which it shares land borders. How has it affected M&A activity and overall foreign investment flow, primarily from China?,Ambuj: The Indian government, in Press Note 3 (PN3) in April 2020, decreed that all investments from entities (direct or indirect) with which India shares a land border, would have to be made under the 'approval route' and would need security clearance.,PN3 also covered investments where beneficial ownership belonged to China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. Initially, investors from these nations approached the Indian Government for approval. However, the government was silent about these approvals until the first year of PN3.,According to data disclosed under a recent application filed under the Right to Information Act, the Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has revealed that it received 382 FDI proposals from Chinese entities after PN3, of which 80 proposals have been approved.,The DPIIT made the commitment that appropriate due diligence and FDI approvals from Chinese entities would be scrutinized on a case-by-case basis. Before PN3, Chinese firms were actively investing in technology and e-commerce businesses in India, particularly in start-ups.,Up to 2019, India received foreign investments of approximately $3.4Bln from China and Hong Kong. However, post PN3, the total investment from China and Hong Kong has declined to $952Mln or 72 percent.,Having said that, despite COVID-19 and a huge drop in Chinese investments, India has received the highest annual FDI ($83.57Bln) in the 2021-22 financial year, and has emerged as a preferred investment destination.,The steps taken by the Indian government during the past few years have affected the increasing volumes of inbound FDI, which has led to record levels.,Sputnik: The geopolitical scenario has undergone tectonic changes because of tensions between China and the US, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Decoupling is a new buzzword that many say is part of de-globalization. How is this affecting mergers and acquisitions globally, especially in India?,Ambuj: 'Decoupling' refers to a situation where another country replaces a particular country in a global and extended supply chain. 'De-globalization' would constitute a step beyond 'decoupling' where activities that are performed offshore are brought back home completely.,Tensions between the US and China have caused a major drop in cross-border M&A deals for these two countries (an almost 95 percent drop from 2016 to 2020) primarily because of geopolitical, trade, and tariff uncertainties.,On the other hand, global M&A deals were badly hit because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to data provided by Reuters, the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the value of global M&A activities to plunge 29 percent in the first quarter of 2022.,The geopolitical scenario will most probably result in a complex and disrupted global supply chain. The present conflicts such as between US and China, and Russia and Ukraine have given rise to debate about whether we are heading towards 'decoupling', which might slowly lead to 'de-globalization'.,Decoupling and de-globalization will affect the global economy adversely and could result in long-standing inflation.,So far as India is concerned, the geopolitical situation has caused unexpected price rises, disrupted supply chains, and introduced other uncertainties because of blocked inventory. This has affected major sectors such as textiles, plastics, steel, pharma, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), etc.,Although such geopolitical situations have majorly affected M&A activity in Asia, investments in India might see a rise. Mostly, the manufacturing sector could benefit, considering how easy it is to do business and the cost-effective labor in the Indian market.,Other European countries are already considering shifting their manufacturing facilities from China to India. This is a result of the Indian government's efforts to boost foreign investments, which has made India a preferred investment destination.,Sputnik: Despite unprecedented sanctions by the West, most Asian countries, including India, have carved out a space for themselves in this crisis and are maximizing their geopolitical leverage without limiting economic opportunities. Given this backdrop, do you think Asian countries will outpace their global peers in the M&A sector?,Ambuj: India has strong business relationships with Russia, especially in the defense, oil and gas, and automotive sectors.,Because of the sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has been isolated from global financial systems and trading. Therefore, strong support and implementation of such sanctions may not be viewed as a beneficial step.,So far as opportunities are concerned, India can be seen as an alternative supplier of manufactured exports to the West. However, the preference would be given to countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ie Taiwan, Korea and Japan. This may result in major investments in Asian countries, which may exceed the western market's M&A activities in deal volume and size.,From a cross-border M&A point of view, India remains a preferred destination with an FDI of approximately $83.57Bln and 2,064 M&A deals in the 2021-22 financial year, which puts it in top spot globally. Mauritius and Singapore remain the top investors for India, and we can see India being comfortably placed as an attractive business nation.,Sputnik: Recently, a large number of western firms have announced their intention to leave the Russian market. Has this created space for Indian firms to buy assets or to invest in Russia?,Ambuj: Yes. Judging from the silence of the Indian government on the subject of sanctions, Indian firms are keen to capitalize on the geopolitical conflict as an opportunity to invest and gain a share of the Russian market. Opportunities are available mainly in industries serving the pharmaceutical, oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors.,Furthermore, since big global companies such as Apple, fast retail and Ikea have shut or kept their operations in Russia on hold, mid-size Indian companies in the retail and fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sectors are also interested in doing business in India.,Additionally, since supply chains between Russia and -European countries are blocked, Indian suppliers are looking to initiate strong trade relations by offering undisrupted supply to Russia.,Sputnik: Reports claim that Russian businesses and other big players have been looking for ways to invest their money in Asia. What kind of investment opportunities does the Indian market offer them?,Ambuj: Unlike the UK, India does not offer any scheme like a 'Golden Visa' for Russian businessmen who can trade for their residential status in lieu of multi-million investments in the country. However, investment opportunities in India remain plentiful and attractive. As India's Prime Minister said at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year: "This is the best time to invest in India.!,Over the years, the Indo-Russian bilateral relationship has developed into a comprehensive partnership that includes cooperation in several high-technology sectors.,India and Russia have projected that bilateral trade will be worth $30Bln by 2025. This will boost the India-Russia business relationship, and many opportunities await Russian investors in India.,The key areas for Russian investments to focus on in India are telecommunications, automobiles, industrial services, oil and gas, and medical/surgical appliances.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。    　　来源：机构之家　　苏农银行（603323．SH）中期业绩于8月25日正式公布。

二 | 　　机构之家梳理发现，这份半年报，让市场感受到该行细项收入的“极限拉扯”——利息收入与中间业务收入增速边际走高，而投资端拖累效应则同步增强，后者进而掣肘业绩增长节奏。而该行核心资负结构也呈现出鲜明的分化特点：对公板块消耗大部分净新增信贷资源，而零售板块几乎成为存款端增长唯一贡献者。此外，不良额率边际回落，该行向市场释放资产端质量改善的信号。但关注、逾期与重组贷款占比仍展现回升节奏，仍考验着该行风控定力。　　业绩增长放缓，利息、中收与投资表现“裂痕”加大　　2026年上半年，苏农银行实现营业收入23.03亿元，同比增长1.00%；实现归母净利润12.14亿元，同比增长3.02%，收入端仍延续过去数年低个位数增长特征，盈利端增长则进一步放缓。而从二季度单季来看，该行营业收入同比仅增0.77%，归母净利润则增1.80%，两项指标均低于一季度表现（+1.22%、5.05%）。

三 | 　　图片系苏农银行收入和利润增长情况（%）；资料来源：wind　　而这一业绩增长放缓态势，正是该行收入结构极致分化下的直接体现。在利息净收入、净手续费收入增长动能有所增强的同时，其投资端表现却不尽如人意。今年一季度，该行净利息收入同比增长7.95%，净手续费收入同比增11.76%；进入二季度以来，净利息收入上半年同比增速达到10.46%，同期净手续费收入增长更是跃升至30.80%，不过，表征投资端表现的其他非息收入，则从一季度下降11.36%，到上半年降幅扩大至16.23%，扰动了本应提速的营业收入表现，进而形成了增长放缓的结果。从二季度单季来看，在该行净利息收入、中间业务收入分别增13.02%、61.01%，与其他非息收入20.61%的下降表现更是形成鲜明对比。　　事实上，在过往政策端引导减费让利的背景下，苏农银行中收表现曾多年承压：2022年至2024年连降三年，规模缩水超七成。

四 | 伴随着权益市场活跃度提升，2025年这一指标则以66%的年度反弹幅度收官，而今年以来则延续修复通道。而作为核心因子的息差表现，较过往2%、甚至是3%以上水平已大幅回落，如今企稳迹象已现（上半年净息差1.37%，略低于去年同期1.39%的水平），净利息收入今年来开始修复“失地”。不过，今年以来债市震荡走牛下，在苏农银行投资收益中反而未有相应体现，前期卖出AC和FVOCI账户的债券兑现收益，所带来的基期因素，或是造成当前困局的原因之一。

五 | 　　核心资负结构延续分化、资产质量仍考量风控定力　　如今的苏农银行，已站上了2400亿总资产规模新关口，其存、贷款总额于上半年末分别达到了1847.40亿和1465.60亿新高。这一稳健扩表节奏，则是推动当前经营业绩向上的基础因子。

六 | 　　而零售与对公的天平，早已倾斜。在贷款领域，截止上半年末同比7.50%的增长表现，几乎均由对公领域贡献。上半年末该行对公领域贷款增长12.32%，远高于零售端表现（+0.77%），批发零售、租赁与商务服务、农林牧渔等行业成为新增信贷投放的主要阵地。相较于对公领域在信贷中的持续强势表现，零售端则成为核心负债存款的主要力量。存款余额结构显示，今年上半年末，苏农银行零售存款余额同比增长6.42%，好于对公板块对应同比下降2.38%的表现，并推动该行整体存款实现5.77%的增长。　　相较于一季度，上半年末苏农银行不良额率实现“双降”：不仅不良贷款余额环比下降0.34亿元至12.66亿元，且不良率下降2BP至0.86%，后者已处于上市农商行同业中低位水平。回顾来看，自2015年末该行不良率录得1.86%之后，此后这一数字即整体延续回落态势，上半年末表现仅为过往高点的一半。

七 | 这背后，既是该行主动加大风险处置力度的直接体现，也与该行深耕产业、降低贷款集中度等举措息息相关。　　不过，这一处境并非高枕无忧。

八 | 该行关注率自2024年以来整体回升，从上半年末1.40%的表现来看，已累计上升20BP。相较于上年末表现，这一指标已回升7BP。此外，逾期类贷款和重组类贷款占比分别较上年末提升16BP、10BP至1.22%、0.30%。潜在不良的“冒头”，仍考验着该行的风控定力。

九 | 　　风险抵补能力方面，截止今年上半年末，该行拨备覆盖率指标为340.05%。尽管仍较监管要求保留充足空间，但不可否认的是，自2023年开始，这一指标即逐年下降，从452.85%的高点，累计回落112.8个百分点。

十 | 而贷款拨备率在2022年后即开始下降，从当年末4.21%的水平，到今年上半年末的2.94%。当然，过往的拨备“储备”释放，最受益的则是盈利端。2022年至2025年期间，该行收入端累计仅增不足5%，而盈利端则累计实现超三成的增长。责任编辑：曹睿潼。

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